25 July 2008

Obama World Tour

Barack Obama has taken his campaign to foreign shores. He has loaded his campaign plane with his top supporters - the liberal press. He is speaking to friendly crowds in Europe who want nothing more than a liberal US President. What does he want to accomplish on this trip? He has to make a strong case in two critical areas. He has to demonstrate that he has foreign policy experience, and that he can bolster the support of European leaders which Bush was unable to do this time around with Iraq.

Let's start by giving credit where credit is due. He looks like a leader and has managed to deliver press conferences with a number of foreign leaders. But, this is where is stops... Everyone knows that Europe wants to elect Barack Obama. After slipping up and saying he will consider splitting Jerusalem, the Palestinians now want to elect Barack Obama. The leaders of Europe consider it a pleasure to host Obama for a press conference. Together, they are offered up slow pitch softball questions from Obama's friends who came along for the ride, and everyone looks really good in the process.

But, has Obama been successful at making the case he needs to make? Let's start with foreign policy experience. This is an easy one. Anyone can travel country to country and jump on a stump to talk about the issues he has talked about for a year now - especially to a crazed crowd of European liberals. Anyone can have a one time conversation with a group of soldiers and meet for an update with a General in a warzone. But, this does not give a person foreign policy experience. A person achieves experience when they roll up their own sleeves and get involved to solve (or create then fix) real problems. Barack Obama has never done this outside the USA. He simply has no foreign policy experience.

What about his ability to bolster support from European leaders? Let's start by recalling the fact that the leadership has changed in both Germany and France where Bush faced European style liberal opposition to the war in Iraq. The new leaders actually support Bush!! The shame is that they were not in leadership before the war started in Iraq. But, with the Iraqi investments both countries had (probably still have) at the time, perhaps it would not matter who was in office. I'm sure it's difficult to take a stand when over 35 UN sanctions are broken but you have so much money on the table which could be at risk. The point is, getting post war consensus from Sarkozy and Merkel in 2008 is nothing compared to trying to get consensus from Chirac and Schröder before the war ever started. At least Bush had the majority backing of the US Congress...

Barack Obama cannot claim to have foreign policy experience and the ability to generate support in Europe after taking a 2 week World Tour. Anyone could do that... In the end, however, I'm not sure it matters. His base will support him no matter what. Pending any major errors, the real question is, who will attract the majority of Independent voters?

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